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One Simple Strategy Significantly Outperforming the SPY


Jan. 2026 Portfolio Return: 6.71%Jan. 2026 SPY Return: 1.79%
 
A strong positive sentiment combined with a high degree of attention often precedes rapid stock price jumps in the short term. Market sentiment reflects the dominant views of market participants. These views may relate to stock performance, company earnings, products and services, industry trend, investor sentiment, analyst opinions, and more. Short-term stock performance can vary significantly across different sentiment categories.

For the 100 largest companies by market capitalization representing major sectors in SP500, we categorize and extract sentiment and attention data from publicly available online sources, covering areas such as earnings, products and services, industry trends, and analyst opinions. For each sentiment category, we construct a portfolio consisting of 10 equally weighted stocks with the highest combined sentiment score x attention value. The sentiment scores are claculated on a -10 - 10 scale, while attention represents the percentage of media coverage for that category relative to the company's total media coverage. Every portfolio is rebalanced on the last trading day of each month.

In 2025, the Industry Trend Portfolio returned 58.89%, significantly outperforming the SPY, which returned 16.34%. In contrast, the Analyst Opinions Portfolio delivered only 15.14%. Here's the monthly holdinds for Industry Trend Portfolio 2025.The sub-portfolios consisting of top 5 holdings, top 6-10 holdings, and top 11-15 holdings generated returns of 64%, 51%, and 38% respectively.

A strong positive sentiment toward industry trends is often followed by favorable industry-wide developments, company-specific news, analyst upgrades, and subsequent stock price surges.

2025 Monthly Return: Industry Trend Portfolio vs SPY
MonthJan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.Total
Portfolio3.69%-0.6%-5.63%0.64%5.6%12.79%1.78%1.8%11.61%15.3%-1.46%3.7%58.89%
SPY2.69%-1.27%-5.59%-0.45%5.54%4.79%0.66%3.75%3.63%2%-0.24%0.23%16.34%

Because sentiment and attention change daily, it is crucial to select stocks that maintain consistently high sentiment and attention over several days, while also incorporating your own technical and fundamental analysis. The Industry Trend Portfolio is intentionally constructed with simplicity to provide a clear and effective performance comparison.

Industry Trend Portfolio: Jan. 2026 Holdings
Company Ticker Sentiment Attention Trend Price
Level
2026-01-01
Price
2026-01-09
Price
Return%
1. CrowdStrike CRWD 7      25%      0.8      17      468.76      470.61      0.39%     
2. Alphabet Inc. GOOG 6.9      21%      -0.3      52      313.8      329.15      4.89%     
3. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing TSM 5.3      26%      0.7      75      303.92      323.54      6.46%     
4. Microsoft Corporation MSFT 5.5      23%      -0.4      51      483.62      479.28      -0.9%     
5. Caterpillar CAT 6.4      19%      0.6      24      572.86      617.58      7.81%     
6. Micron Technology MU 6.5      19%      2.4      80      285.39      345.09      20.92%     
7. Broadcom Inc. AVGO 5.6      20%      0.6      35      346.1      344.97      -0.33%     
8. Rocket Lab RKLB 5.8      19%      1.7      69      69.76      84.84      21.62%     
9. Intuitive Surgical ISRG 5.3      20%      -0.1      51      566.36      586.24      3.51%     
10. RTX Corporation RTX 6      18%      0.1      70      183.47      188.52      2.75%     
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Average 54    6.71%   
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SPY 681.86      694.04      1.79%   


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