Our Four Core Signals
1) Technical setup
We model the probability distribution of bullish, bearish, or neutral outcomes based on price history. On their own, most chart patterns carry ~55% predictive power; when combined with sentiment, accuracy typically improves to ~70 - 75%.
2) Sentiment
Sentiment captures the dominant opinions about a stock or sector at a moment in time (e.g. earnings, guidance, industry trends, and analyst views). We analyze headlines and market commentary across categories to produce a normalized score on a -10 - +10 scale:
- +3 is bullish; +5 is very bullish.
- -3 is bearish; -5 is very bearish.
3) Attention
Attention shows what the market is actively watching - industry sectors, companies, or monetary policy. It pinpoints where new moves are likely to start.
4) Emotion
Emotion quantifies the intensity behind moves, separating routine drift from conviction-driven surges.
How It Works
- Read the history (technicals). Chart structures frame the likely paths ahead.
- Take the market's temperature (sentiment). Opinions evolve with new data and are shaped by technical context.
- Track catalysts (events). Earnings, guidance, policy headlines, and sharp price moves either confirm or challenge prevailing views.
- Weigh attention and emotion. What's in the spotlight, and how intensely it's felt often drives the next impulse.
Why It Matters
When technical setup, sentiment, attention, and emotion align, conviction rises. When they conflict, sentiment discrepancies reveal opportunities - showing where expectations may be off and where the next move could surprise.
TheMarketUnfolds turns these inputs into clear, comparable scores so you can see the big picture quickly, and act with context, not guesswork.