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| When the broad market is in an uptrend or rebound, the trend of SPY is positive, volatility is dropping, and many individual stocks pop 5-10% a day. When the market is in a downtrend or correction, the trend of SPY is negative, volatility is raising, and many individual stocks drop 5-10% a day. When the market is in a consolidation mode, both the trend of SPY and volatility trend tend to be flat. Some individual stocks pop 5-10% a day, while others drop 5-10% a day. We use the trend of SPY, the trend of volatility, volatility divergence, the strength of market moving forces, and SPY daily standard deviation to gage where the broad market is now, and where it will move next. The volatility divergence is the difference between near term volatilty and mid-term volatility measured by standard deviation. When the divergence reaches 2, the market has the potential to reverse down. When it reaches over -2, the market is very likely to reverse up. That is especially true when the SPY standard deviation is subdued (less than 1%). The market direction of the next trading session is unknown for most of trading days, but it is predictable for some days when all indicators point to the same direction. Sometimes, the prediction is realized in the overnight session instead of the next day. |
| Date | Apr 17 | Apr 20 | Apr 21 | Apr 22 | Apr 23 | Apr 24 | Apr 27 | Apr 28 | Apr 29 | Apr 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY Price | 710.05 | 708.73 | 704.14 | 711.18 | 708.36 | 713.975 | 715.1 | 711.545 | 711.63 | 718.62 |
| Price Change | 1.21% | -0.19% | -0.65% | 1% | -0.4% | 0.79% | 0.16% | -0.5% | 0.01% | 0.98% |
| Price Level | 99 | 91 | 83 | 85 | 80 | 82 | 80 | 75 | 73 | 79 |
| SPY StdDev | 3.13% | 3.33% | 3.48% | 3.58% | 3.69% | 3.66% | 3.47% | 3.13% | 2.94% | 2.76% |
| SPY Trend | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Volatility Trend | -3.5 | -2.5 | -1.9 | -1.6 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -1.9 | -3.2 | -1.3 | -2.7 |
| Volatility Divergence | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Trend Force | 2% | 1.2% | -0.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.2% |
| Moving Force | 0.72% | 1% | -2.52% | 4.19% | -1.22% | 4.17% | 0.22% | -3.41% | 3.6% | 6.31% |
| Next Day Direction | Up | Up | N/A | Up | N/A | Up | Up | Up | N/A | N/A |