The retail sector is currently experiencing significant challenges, highlighted by the recent bankruptcy of a major department store. This has cast a shadow over consumer spending trends, which are crucial for the overall health of the sector. However, there are prospects for potential mergers and IPOs in 2026, suggesting a possible rebound following previous difficulties posed by tariffs. Overall, the sector is navigating a complex landscape of both obstacles and opportunities. The price action of Retail (XRT) sector is shaped by numerous forces, ranging from broad macroeconomic trends to company-specific performance and market structure. The trend sentiment at -0.6 is bearish. The market sentiment at -0.8 is bearish. Trend sentiment measures the current trend of the stock price, and market sentiment reflects what market participants collectively think where the price will move next.XRT is likely to move down since both trend sentiment and market sentiment are negative. The positive sentiment force for Retail sector is at 0.3, and the negative at -1 on 2026-01-20. The forces of Market Risk Appetite (-2.7), Broad Market Trend (-1.2), Sentiment towards Fundamentals (-1), Sector Price Trend (-0.6), and Valuation Sentiment (-0.5) will drive down the price. The forces of Price Level Sentiment (0), and Option Sentiment (1.5) will drive up the price. The sentiment for Broad Market Trend is calculated based on SPY trend. The sentiment for Sector Price Trend is calculated based on XRT trend. The sentiment for Option Speculation is calculated from put/call ratio. The Risk Prefrence is calculated from Bitcoin price trend. Price Level sentiment is positive when oversold, and negative when overbought. Valuation Sentiment, and Sentimentals towards Fundamentals are extracted from headlines and market commentary. All sentiment scores are normalized on a -10 - +10 scale. The price level reaches 100 at Bollinger upper band, and zero at lower band.

XRT
Date	Attention	Price	Price Level	Change	10 Day Trend	Trend Sentiment	Hourly Trend	Hourly StdDev	Market Sentiment	Action	P	Fund.	News Sentiment
2026-01-20	0%(0%)	88.84	59	-1.75%	0.22%	-0.6	-0.22%	0.9%	-0.8	Short	55%	-1	-0.5
2026-01-19	0%(0%)					0.9	0.11%		0.6			-1	-0.5
2026-01-18	0%(0%)					0.9	0.11%		0.6			-1	-0.5
2026-01-17	0%(0%)					0.9	0.11%		0.6			-1	-0.5
2026-01-16	0%(0%)	90.42	83	-0.57%	0.56%	0.9	0.11%	0.5%	0.8	Long	55%	-1	-0.5
2026-01-15	0%(0%)	90.93	96	1.27%	0.68%	2.2	0%	0.5%	0.8	Long	70%	-1	-0.5
2026-01-14	0%(0%)	89.79	83	-0.66%	0.34%	0.7	0%	0.3%	0.9	Long	55%	-1	-7.5
2026-01-13	0%(0%)	90.39	97	0.52%	0.46%	1	0%	0.5%	0.5	Wait	50%	-1	-0.5
2026-01-12	0%(0%)	89.92	97	-0.2%	0.34%	1.6	-0.11%	0.5%	0.1	Wait	50%	-1	6.5
2026-01-11	0%(0%)					1.9	0.11%		0.5			-1	-0.5
Short is the preferred trading strategy with 55% chance of being right. Weak trend sentiment and negative hourly trend. Wait action is recommended in three scenarios with either high uncertainty or high risk: 1. The trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the opposite directions. 2. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are positive, but the price level is elevated. 3. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are negative, but the price level is depressed. In an uptrend, as an investor, you may want to wait for the pullback to open long position. In a downtrend, the price will likely rebound after huge decline. As an investor, you may want to wait for the rebound to exit long position.
Market sentiment will accelerate the current trend when both trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the same direction. Market sentiment will generate volatility when it's at the opposite direction of the trend sentiment. News sentiment measures the daily emotion of the market. News sentiment may impact the daily price change while market sentiment is a more stable and consistent moving force.