Recent narratives highlight strong sales forecasts for leading brands, particularly in innovative sectors like transportation and technology. Spending trends, particularly among the over-50 demographic and interest in consumer stocks, indicate potential growth opportunities within the marketplace. However, concerns about global consumer consumption trends and challenges faced by specific consumer services reflect underlying vulnerabilities in the sector. Tariff impacts also contribute to an overall cautious outlook, despite recovery potential being noted by analysts. The price action of Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sector is shaped by numerous forces, ranging from broad macroeconomic trends to company-specific performance and market structure. The trend sentiment at -1.5 is very bearish. The market sentiment at 0.3 is modestly bullish. Trend sentiment measures the current trend of the stock price, and market sentiment reflects what market participants collectively think where the price will move next.There is no clear direction for XLY since trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the opposite directions. The positive sentiment force for Consumer Discretionary sector is at 0.8, and the negative at -0.4 on 2026-01-02. The forces of Valuation Sentiment (2.6), Sentiment towards Fundamentals (1.5), Price Level Sentiment (0.5), and Market Risk Appetite (0) will drive up the price. The forces of Option Sentiment (-0.4), Broad Market Trend (-0.7), and Sector Price Trend (-1.5) will drive down the price. The sentiment for Broad Market Trend is calculated based on SPY trend. The sentiment for Sector Price Trend is calculated based on XLY trend. The sentiment for Option Speculation is calculated from put/call ratio. The Risk Prefrence is calculated from Bitcoin price trend. Price Level sentiment is positive when oversold, and negative when overbought. Valuation Sentiment, and Sentimentals towards Fundamentals are extracted from headlines and market commentary. All sentiment scores are normalized on a -10 - +10 scale. The price level reaches 100 at Bollinger upper band, and zero at lower band.

XLY
Date	Attention	Price	Price Level	Change	10 Day Trend	Trend Sentiment	Hourly Trend	Hourly StdDev	Market Sentiment	Action	P	Fund.	News Sentiment
2026-01-02	0%(0.3%)	118.36	12	-0.87%	-0.16%	-1.5	-0.08%	0.7%	0.3	Short	65%	1.5	-0.5
2026-01-01	0%(0.3%)					-0.7	-0.08%		0.3			1.7	-0.5
2025-12-31	1%(0.4%)	119.4	29	-0.8%	-0.25%	-0.7	-0.08%	0.4%	0.3	Short	55%	2.1	2.8
2025-12-30	0%(0.4%)	120.36	46	-0.41%	-0.08%	-0.2	-0.08%	0.5%	0.5	Short	55%	1.7	-4.5
2025-12-29	0%(0.4%)	120.86	56	-0.96%	0%	-0	-0.08%	0.5%	0.6	Short	55%	2.1	7.5
2025-12-28	1%(0.6%)					0.6	0%		0.6			2.4	7.5
2025-12-27	0%(0.4%)					0.6	0%		0.5			2.4	-0.5
2025-12-26	0%(0.6%)	122.03	75	-0.46%	0.16%	0.6	0%	0.2%	0.2	Long	55%	2.3	-2.5
2025-12-25	1%(0.7%)					0.9	0%		0.7			1.7	-7.5
2025-12-24	1%(0.7%)	122.59	87	0.34%	0.25%	0.9	0%	0.2%	0.5	Long	55%	1.7	4.2
Short is the preferred trading strategy with 65% chance of being right. Both trend sentiment and hourly trend are very weak. Wait action is recommended in three scenarios with either high uncertainty or high risk: 1. The trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the opposite directions. 2. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are positive, but the price level is elevated. 3. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are negative, but the price level is depressed. In an uptrend, as an investor, you may want to wait for the pullback to open long position. In a downtrend, the price will likely rebound after huge decline. As an investor, you may want to wait for the rebound to exit long position.
Market sentiment will accelerate the current trend when both trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the same direction. Market sentiment will generate volatility when it's at the opposite direction of the trend sentiment. News sentiment measures the daily emotion of the market. News sentiment may impact the daily price change while market sentiment is a more stable and consistent moving force.