Recent discussions around long-term Treasuries have focused on concerns over auction outcomes and potential market selloffs, indicating heightened caution among investors. This sentiment is contrasted by mentions of bonds in relation to interest rates, suggesting some stability amid market fluctuations. As interest rates remain a key focus, the overall outlook for long-term Treasuries is shaped by these conflicting factors. The market appears to be balancing fears of instability with ongoing demand for bonds amid economic uncertainties. The price action of Long-Term Treasuries (TLT) asset class is shaped by numerous forces, ranging from broad macroeconomic trends to asset-specific performance and market structure. The trend sentiment at -0.2 is modestly bearish. The market sentiment at 0.2 is modestly bullish. Trend sentiment measures the current trend of the stock price, and market sentiment reflects what market participants collectively think where the price will move next.There is no clear direction for TLT since trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the opposite directions. The positive sentiment force for sector is at 0.4, and the negative at -0.2 on 2025-12-16. The forces of Option Sentiment (0.9), and Price Level Sentiment (0.5) will drive up the price. The forces of Asset Price Trend (-0.2), and Asset Sentiment (-0.5) will drive down the price. The sentiment for Asset Price Trend is calculated based on TLT trend. The sentiment for Option Speculation is calculated from put/call ratio. Price Level sentiment is positive when oversold, and negative when overbought. Asset Sentiment scores are extracted from headlines and market commentary. All sentiment scores are normalized on a -10 - +10 scale. The price level reaches 100 at Bollinger upper band, and zero at lower band.

TLT
Date	Attention	Price	Price Level	Change	10 Day Trend	Trend Sentiment	Hourly Trend	Hourly StdDev	Market Sentiment	Action	P	Asset Sentiment	News Sentiment
2025-12-16	0%(0%)	87.88	25	0.54%	-0.11%	-0.2	0%	0.2%	0.2	Long	55%	-0.5	0
2025-12-15	0%(0%)	87.41	9	0.07%	-0.11%	-0.2	-0.11%	0.5%	0.2	Short	55%	-0.5	0
2025-12-14	0%(0%)					-0.6	-0.11%		-0.2			-0.5	0
2025-12-13	0%(0%)					-0.6	-0.11%		-0.8			-3	0
2025-12-12	0%(0%)	87.34	4	-0.97%	-0.34%	-0.6	-0.11%	0.6%	-0.6	Wait	50%	-3	0
2025-12-11	0%(0%)	88.2	24	-0.1%	-0.23%	-0.4	0%	0.2%	-0.4	Long	55%	-2.5	1.5
2025-12-10	0%(0%)	88.29	24	0.38%	-0.22%	-0.4	0.11%	0.2%	-0.3	Long	55%	-2	0
2025-12-09	0%(0%)	87.96	10	0.09%	-0.22%	-0.5	0%	0.2%	-0.3	Short	55%	-2	0
2025-12-08	0%(0%)	87.88	0	-0.33%	-0.22%	-0.5	0%	0.4%	1	Wait	50%	2.5	0
2025-12-07	0%(0%)					-1.4	0%		0.4			2.5	0
Long is the preferred trading strategy with 55% chance of being right. Improving trend sentiment and positive hourly trend. Wait action is recommended in three scenarios with either high uncertainty or high risk: 1. The trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the opposite directions. 2. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are positive, but the price level is elevated. 3. Both trend sentiment and market sentiment are negative, but the price level is depressed. In an uptrend, as an investor, you may want to wait for the pullback to open long position. In a downtrend, the price will likely rebound after huge decline. As an investor, you may want to wait for the rebound to exit long position.
Market sentiment will accelerate the current trend when both trend sentiment and market sentiment are at the same direction. Market sentiment will generate volatility when it's at the opposite direction of the trend sentiment. News sentiment measures the daily emotion of the market. News sentiment may impact the daily price change while market sentiment is a more stable and consistent moving force.